A man can hope - and I'm hoping that at least one of these long shots gets a run tomorrow - but they are the longest of shots.
5. Best Actor - Aaron Eckhart (Rabbit Hole)
Nicole Kidman is receiving all the accolades but one half of the central couple in Rabbit Hole is missing out. I've been a fan of Eckhart's for a long time and have always thought he had the chops to play someone deeply, deeply evil, rather than the conflicted Two-Face of The Dark Knight. Most reviews of Rabbit Hole say Eckhart is as good as if not stronger than Kidman in the film - so it seems like it's merely a stronger field on the male side that's keeping him out.
Which favourite should miss out?
Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter)
4. Best Film - Animal Kingdom
This has nothing to do with Australia Day - Animal Kingdom is just an outstanding film. Even though I cringe when I see it described in
Which Favourite Should Miss Out? Tough call, but I'll go with 127 Hours for no particular reason except I think it's the most likely...
3. Best Supporting Actor - Tom Hardy (Inception)
Charming. If there's one adjective to describe Tom Hardy's performance in Inception, it's just one big giant ball of charm. He may not have the method of Christian Bale or the wit and wisdom of Geoffrey Rush but wouldn't it be nice to see the Academy nominate a performance with just a bit of old fashioned movie star charisma?
2. Best Supporting Actor - Armie Hammer (The Social Network)
If not just for the best line of 2010 - "I'm six-five, 220 pounds and there's two of me" - then for one of the most remarkable performances of the year. If you knew Armie Hammer was playing two roles, you took glee in both the way he constructed two separate characters and in the reactions of people when they found out he was just one actor. There are a bunch of fantastic performances in The Social Network but for technical proficiency and the neat trick of making characters who should be inherently unrelatable and unlikeable incredibly sympathetic, Hammer gets my vote for a Supporting nomination.
Who should miss out: Andrew Garfield, I suppose. Better in 'Never Let Me Go', I reckon Hammer just pips him. Were it not for the fact the rest of the category is so strong, both could easily get a nomination.
1. Best Actress - Emma Stone (Easy A)
Most of my picks are pretty shamelessly mainstream, and I know the Academy never rewards comedy, but I still hold out a slight glimmer of hope that Emma Stone might just snag a nomination. My reasoning?
Emma Stone does something that only a few of her fellow nominees (Steinfeld, maybe Kidman) do - she elevates the film. The film would have been an inoffensive teen comedy without her, but with her it's one of the most entertaining movies f the year and one of the best teen movies in recent memory. Its a sparkling, charismatic, hilarious performance not without surprising levels of depth - and I think it should warrant a Best Actress nomination.
Who should miss out?
They're all tough ones, but I'm going to go with Nicole Kidman. You don't nominate Eckhart, you don't nominate Kidman!